Elezioni (1) : Iraq

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/iraqi-election-goes-down-to-wire.html

Tomorrow morning, the final results of the parliamentary election in Iraq will be announced. As it stands now, at least 9 coalitions will earn seats, and no clear leading party. With about 95% polling stations having reported, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki's State of Law coalition has about 25.8 percent of the national vote, while challenger Ayad Allawi's Iraqiya list holding just barely more, with 25.9 percent nationally.


As we previewed back in January, several major fault lines in Iraqi society are made clear through the political polarization. "Moderate" Shia voters, many associated with leading cleric Ali al-Sistani have generally voted with the State of Law coalition. More radical Shia voters, mostly from the southern Baghdad slums and south eastern border provinces with Iran, have tended toward the National Iraqi Alliance, who are headlined by the populist junior cleric Moqtada al-Sadr (known better for his well-armed militia than his Islamic learning).